To deliver optimal treatment by 2040, a significant expansion of the chemotherapy workforce is needed. Between 2018 and 2040, therefore the number of patients requiring first-line chemotherapy treatment each year is predicted to rise from 9.8 million to 15 million (53%) globally; if there were full application of evidence-based guidelines. Because This is according to a modelling study published in The Lancet Oncology journal; therefore which is the first study to estimate the scale of chemotherapy provision needed at national, regional; and global scales to respond to this situation.

Full application of evidence

By 2040; two-thirds (67%, 10.1 million out of 15 million) of patients requiring chemotherapy will reside in low- or middle-income countries. Of the additional 5.2 million people needing treatment by 2040, an estimated 75% will reside in these countries. Existing evidence has shown the global number of cancer cases are expected to rise, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

As a crucial component of cancer care, chemotherapy treatment is likely to benefit a large proportion of these cases. To respond to rising demand globally; therefore the study estimates the number of physicians needed in 2018 and 2040 to provide chemotherapy to all patients who would benefit from it (the actual number of practising cancer physicians worldwide is unknown).

Rising global cancer

Their results show that workforce requirements to deliver optimal chemotherapy will increase from approximately 65,000 cancer physicians in 2018 to 100,000 in 2040. Therefore “The rising global cancer burden is undoubtedly one of the major health crises of today. Strategies are urgently need to equip the global health workforce to enable safe treatment of current and future patients;” says Dr. Brooke Wilson.

University of New South Wales and the Collaboration for Cancer Outcomes; Research and Evaluation at the Ingham Institute for Applied Medial Research; Australia, who is the first author on the study. Because “Countries and institutions should use our data to estimate their future cancer physician workforce requirements and chemotherapy needs and plan national, regional; therefore and global strategies to ensure all those who need it will have access to chemotherapy treatment.”

Patient characteristics and cancer

The authors used best-practice guidelines; patient characteristics and cancer stage data from the USA and Australia to calculate the proportion of newly diagnosed cases ; of cancer who would benefit from chemotherapy. Therefore They applied these rates to international estimates of global incidences of adult and paediatric cancer from 2018 up to 2040 (GLOBOCAN) ; to provide estimates of global chemotherapy demand.
Therefore; these estimates assume that delivery of cancer care to the level of service provision in high-income nations is an achievable goal for all countries. Because The authors argue that they should be use as markers of the highest standard of care that should be aim for in the coming decades.